Should you consider buying a home now, given shifting mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are projected to fall below 6 % by the end of 2026 — meaning waiting too long could cost you more.
What the Forecast Shows
- The Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group predicts that mortgage rates will wind down to 6.4 % by late 2025 and around 5.9 % in 2026. (source)
- As rates fall, Fannie Mae expects new + existing home sales to rise (to ~5.16 million in 2026) and more mortgage originations (up to $2.32 trillion). (source)
- The share of refinances is expected to increase from ~26 % in 2025 to ~35 % in 2026. (source)
Basically: the forecast suggests a softening in rates over the next 1–2 years, which could reduce monthly payments and expand what buyers can afford.
Why Buying Today Still Makes Sense
Even though lower rates are projected, there are solid reasons to act now:
| Factor | Why It Matters | What You Can Do |
|---|---|---|
| Home price trends | If home values continue rising, the price you wait on today may cost more later—even if rates dip | Lock in a home now at today’s price |
| Inflation & costs | Construction, materials, labor and land costs may continue increasing | Buying now helps you avoid future cost escalations |
| Mortgage qualification | Your credit, income, and debt status may be strongest now | Get prequalified while conditions are favorable |
| Rate timing uncertainty | Forecasts are just estimates — rates might not fall as quickly or as far as predicted | Move when you’re ready rather than hoping for perfect timing |
Tips for Buyers Navigating Today’s Market
- Get preapproved now — it gives you a clearer budget and makes offers stronger.
- Watch the spread — even if the headline rate is higher, look at what you’re actually paying (APR, fees, etc.).
- Negotiate in other areas — seller concessions, closing costs, appraisal gaps — so you reduce your overall out-of-pocket expense.
- Be aware of upcoming refi opportunities — if you buy now and rates drop, you might refinance down the line.
- Stay flexible with your time horizon — If you plan to hold the home 5+ years, mistiming a small rate differential is less impactful.
Waiting for a perfect rate drop can be risky — home prices may creep up, and your financial position might change. Based on the current forecasts, rates are likely to ease in the next couple of years, but the timing and magnitude aren’t guaranteed. If the fundamentals are in place (stable income, good credit, long-term intent), buying now lets you lock in today’s home price with the option to refinance later.
Want a Custom Buying Strategy?
Would you like me to build you a custom “buying strategy” based on your personal scenario (budget, timeline, Florida market)? Contact me
Fabiola Meneses Orlando Realtor® | Wemert Group Realty 